During the winter months, people across Western North Carolina tune into weather reports and wonder, “Will it snow?”

In fact, even the region’s best meteorologists might be pondering that same question; predicting winter weather in the mountains is notoriously challenging. But thanks to a $15,000 grant, UNC Asheville will play a new role in making local winter forecasts more accurate. It is the first substantial study to observe winter weather in Western North Carolina, said project director Doug Miller, UNC Asheville associate professor of atmospheric sciences. The study began December 1 and will run through February 28, 2007.

Local winter weather will be monitored by high-tech weather balloons launched from the Swannanoa River Valley just as precipitation begins to fall. UNC Asheville atmospheric sciences students will launch the balloons every two hours for up to 10 hours during a storm. As the balloons rise to 40,000 feet, a five-by-three inch attached instrument package will record vertical profiles of temperature, moisture and wind speed. About two hours after each balloon launch, the UNC Asheville student teams will upload the data to a Web site accessible to the National Weather Service (NWS) Forecast Office in Greenville, S.C. The NWS will then have real-time access to information about what is happening in the storm, allowing the forecasters to confirm or modify their predictions. These up-to-date forecasts will help residents in Western North Carolina better prepare for disrupted travel and power outages that often come with wet winter weather.

“This kind of information, when interpreted by the forecasters in Greenville, can really help form a more accurate assessment about whether the conditions are going to be dangerous or not,” said Miller.

Winter weather in Western North Carolina has been difficult to predict, in part, because pockets of cold air dam up against the mountains holding different temperatures at varying atmospheric heights. Consequently, these cold air pockets create a mix of winter weather: it can be raining in Asheville, sleeting in Swannanoa, and snowing in Black Mountain.

Atmospheric scientists still have much to learn about the nature and evolution of cold air damming, but Miller believes that the data the students collect will help lead to a greater understanding of this weather phenomenon.

UNC Asheville students won’t just be launching balloons and collecting information; they will be involved in analyzing the data and sharing it with Weather Forecast Offices in neighboring states as well.

“This is a chance for our students to learn first-hand how to make observations, how to decide if the data is good, and how to communicate what’s in that data to users,” Miller said. “This is definitely a graduate school-level project. It’s highly unusual for undergraduates to be given this kind of opportunity.”

The five-member student team is excited about the project – even though it means they may get the call to launch weather balloons in the middle of a cold, wet night.

“It’s nice to be able to take what we’ve learned in the classroom and apply it in a way that will help people,” said junior Susan Osborne, of Abington, Va. “Waking up in the middle of the night will be well worth it. Everything worth doing in life takes some work and I’m willing to put in the effort for this important project. I’m just really excited.”

Miller hopes that this grant from the Cooperative Program for Operational Meteorology, Education and Training and the National Environmental Modeling and Analysis Center will be just the first of many to study winter weather in Western North Carolina.

“Although progress has been made in forecasting wintertime precipitation, there is still much to be learned about the unique blend of atmospheric ingredients that contribute to a hazardous weather event in the mountains,” said Miller. “This project – and hopefully others in the future – will be invaluable for helping to understand what kind of precipitation will hit the ground in Western North Carolina during a winter storm.”