PRESS RELEASE

CONTACT: Mark West

Department of Mass Communication

UNC-Asheville

RE: Top of line WNC Poll results

These are 'top of line' WNC Poll results on the political questions which were asked. All tables have a sampling error of +/- 5 percent. Polling took place in the first two weeks of October 2008. A total of 490 surveys were completed by randomly-selected respondents in Transylvania, Buncombe, Henderson, Madison, Polk and McDowell counties.

In the Presidential election, for whom do you intend to vote?

34 % McCain

42 % Obama

13 % Undecided

1 % Other

1 % No Answer

While Senator Obama appears to have a substantial lead among voters in the sampled WNC counties, the high number of respondents who gave an 'undecided' response may indicate that the real support for McCain in this area is higher than these results would indicate. Nevertheless, the high numbers for Obama are surprising, considering past support for Republican presidential candidates.

In the Senatorial election, for whom do you intend to vote?

23 % Dole

27 % Hagan

37 % Undecided

2 % Other

11 % No Answer

Dole and Hagan are in a statistical 'dead heat,' considering sampling error and the large undecided population. Again, considering Dole's incumbency, this is somewhat surprising, considering past support for Republican presidential candidates.

In the Congressional election, for whom do you intend to vote?

15 % Mumpower

37 % Shuler

36 % Undecided

1 % Other

11 % No Answer

Shuler appears to have a significant lead, although a substantial proportion of the electorate appears to still be undecided. An unusually high number of respondents chose to provide no answer for this question, indicating that they are probably undecided as well.

Generally, do you think of yourself as a very strong Democrat, a not-so strong Democrat, a Democratic-leaning independent, an independent, a Republican-leaning independent, a not-so-strong Republican, or a very strong Republican?

22 % Very strong Democrat

6 % Not so strong Democrat

13 % Democrat leaning independent

23 % Independent

7 % Republican leaning independent

8 % Not so strong Republican

17 % Very strong Republican

2 % Do not know

2 % No answer

A slim plurality of those responding to this survey defined themselves as independents, with a virtually similar number calling themselves very strong Democrats. Considering that the political parties in Western North Carolina have, for some time, been very close in felt affiliation, this may represent a substantial shift in popular sentiment, although only time will tell whether this change will persist.

The above chart shows the number of people responding to the poll who plan to vote for each presidential candidate and their expressed political affiliation. This evidence suggests that part of the reason for Senator Obama’s success in Western North Carolina has been his ability to capture the attention of voters who describe themselves as independents.